# Vitalik关于ETC和硬分叉的一些杂想

1) 三个月以前，在一次对Morgen Peck采访中，我做过这样的声明，如下所述：

“我一般赞同每一个出现的分裂企图，”他说，“如果未来在Ethereum中有一种争吵，我一定会很高兴看到Ethereum A朝一个方向发展，而Ethereum B朝另外一个方向发展。”

2) 但是这些只是我的信仰和中立的价值观。我们怎么确认“百花奇放”的观点是真正正确的呢？事实上在当前情况下，我们可以发现很多事实。首先，尽管我们看到ETH + ETC在过去的2.5天里有一个相当稳定的价格在$14.3附近，尽管两个部分都有很大的波动性。这依然是在早期阶段，所以依然提醒两个加密货币的价格事实上并不是完全符合超线性函数。 另外，我们可以从其他渠道看到（包括交易所的交易，也包括来自Barry Silbert一些公开声明），更多的来自于bitcoin方而不是ethereum方的人对ETC表现出兴趣。区块链多元化的核心原则：为所有人开放对其他系统的选择权，你可以满足更多人的不同需求。 3) 我同样想表达对硬分叉的我的个人观点。我不认为使用硬分叉作为主要手段来解决偷盗和不道德的应用，是一种长期可行的方案。这一次，我们比较幸运的是，被盗的DAO ETH锁定在一个已知地址里35天。下一次，资金可能在开发者知道以前就被卖到交易所里了，唯一的解决办法可能是回滚 - Casper会使回滚不可行，因为在任何情况下的经济终结机制。 3b) “邪恶Dapps”可以不断地移动他们的合约，逃避必要的缓慢进行的硬分叉，所以虽然我们非常讨厌他们，“柔软”意味着减轻这样的应用带来的伤害，这种方案需要不停地继续寻找。 3c) 区块链本身距离事实上的高伸缩性，高性能和安全的世界计算机这样的愿景还很遥远，我们还需要不断的迭代和循环来更近一步地接近这个目标；如果你原意，你能看到Casper作为一个完全独立的区块链，拥有100%的从ETH的状态拷贝，事实上这是从代码上最干净的方式来实现它了。考虑到这种情况下，结合一个哲学信仰“原则并不需要无限权重，这样它才有价值“，我个人对分叉表示可以接受。 （译者注：在未来pow到casper的升级时，会进行一个“快照”的操作，将那时候的以太坊的所有状态（余额等）复制到casper上。这种操作实质上也是一个分叉。） 在短期到中期的未来，我期望会有更多的小的应用，而不是一个大的应用，那样的话不会因为一个失败而影响到整个生态系统；如果应用求助于硬分叉变成一种常态，它对我打击很大（注意到某些人不同意；Vlad会比较乐于硬分叉因为更多原因，尽管如此我允许他捍卫他自己的观点 :) ) 在这一点上，我假定开放以下两种应用来求助于硬分叉： i) 一种分叉，一种非常不可能的情况是Solidity 编译器证明有一个非常严重bug，导致500-1000万ETH在危险状态。 ii) 中等数额的ether被发送到一个不能花费的地址，因为用户使用了有bug的ethereum-js库，没有正确地从public key创建地址。我可以接受为此做些改变，比如作为metropolis，增加一种新的交易类型，有效地使多数普通类型的不能花费的地址可以花费，通过密码学上证明他们是正确的拥有者（但是我只是表示可以接受在广泛共识的情况下，而且它也会取决于技术可行性和代码复杂度）。 在未来，我猜想这两种可能性会随着时间慢慢消退。 3d) 在短期和中期，我们始终在一种高度的技术不确定性条件下。比如，Vlad和我继续讨论是否修改货币供应量，来提供足够多的激励仅仅通过交易手续费来保证网络安全。如果我们达成一致，比如“1亿ETH而且永远不会再多“到某一天的原则，我们可能会让我们置于一个相当深的洞里，如果研究最后显示，低通货膨胀（或者更复杂些，像“预期”低通货紧缩，但是在Casper参与度低时可能会低通货膨胀）是唯一安全的前进方式。类似地，“创建一种可以永久持续地合约”是在某种程度上经济危险的。所以，对于这类型事情的原则，我们需要在后面会确定下来。 4) 对于道德危害的关心，在这次事件中，我认为有些夸张；反之，尽管分叉了，我对一些在学术上浮现出来的，形式证明和一些安全编写智能合约的项目，印象深刻。在Cornell大学Ethereum研究室中间，写下这些，我非常乐观地认为在明年，代码上的bugs会大幅度的降低。 4b) 尽管如此，它意味着高级语言的开发者会承受更大的压力，我个人也没有时间和能力去维护Serpent到达一个让我满意的水平。我个人会继续使用Serpent作为体验模拟Casper的语言，但是我也欢迎社区的意见，关于如何以及是否可以找到一种定位在其他情况下。 原文如下： ## A Grab Bag of Thoughts on ETC and Forks 1) Three months ago I made a statement in an interview with Morgen Peck as follows: I generally support just about every secession attempt that comes along,” he says. “If in the future there is that kind of a dispute in Ethereum, I’d definitely be quite happy to see Ethereum A go in one direction and Ethereum B go the other. do have principles, and this is a principle that I have so far held consistently. It would of course be grossly hypocritical for me to (correctly) decry bitcoin maximalism back in 2014, and then start shouting "one chain to rule them all! network effects!" the moment it becomes suitable to me. Rather, I believe, just as I had stated in my 2014 post on silos, that: If there truly is one consensus mechanism that is best, why should we not have a large merger between the various projects, come up with the best kind of decentralized computer to push forward as a basis for the crypto-economy, and move forward together under one unified system? In some respects, this seems noble; “fragmentation” certainly has undesirable properties, and it is natural to see “working together” as a good thing. In reality, however, while more cooperation is certainly useful, and this blog post will later describe how and why, desires for extreme consolidation or winner-take-all are to a large degree exactly wrong – not only is fragmentation not all that bad, but rather it’s inevitable, and arguably the only way that this space can reasonably prosper. I personally admittedly find ETC's social contract, community and raison d'être less exciting and satisfying and would not personally feel the same passion for it that I do for ETH, but this is simply my judgement, and the judgement of the very many members of the community that have voted or otherwise expressed assent to the fork. Anyone who feels sufficiently strongly in the other direction is welcome to focus on the ETC chain, and we will see if it remains viable. 2) But those were just my beliefs and intermediate values. How do we know that this "let a hundred flowers bloom" position is actually correct? We can actually discover a lot of facts from the current situation. First of all, though we can see that the price of ETH + ETC has been remarkably stable around$14.3 for the past 2.5 days, despite great volatility in each component. This is still early-stage, but suggests that the value of at least the cryptocurrency component of the ecosystem actually isn't a superlinear function that favors monopoly.

Second, we can see from several sources (including exchange order books, but also public pronouncements from Barry Silbert et al) that incoming interest into ETC is actually coming from the bitcoin side even more than it is from the ethereum side. And this is a core tenet of blockchain pluralism: by leaving open an option to join an alternate system if an individual so chooses, you can satisfy the varying needs of larger groups of people.

3) I may as well offer my own views on hard forking. I do not believe that using hard forks as a primary paradigm to resolve thefts or to deal with unethical applications is a long-term viable strategy. This time, we got very lucky that the stolen DAO ETH were conveniently stuck in a known address for 35 days. Next time around, the funds will likely be being sold on exchanges before the developers even know it, and the only solution will be a rollback - and Casper will make rollbacks infeasible due to its economic finality mechanism in any case.

3b) "Evil dapps" can constantly move their contracts around in ways that evade a necessarily slow-moving hard fork, so while we can annoy them, "softer" means of mitigating the harm of such applications must necessarily still be sought out.

3c) The blockchain itself is very far from the eventual vision of a hyper-scalable, efficient and secure world computer and will see several more iterations to move closer to that goal; if you wish you may view Casper as a completely independent blockchain that happens to have a 100% state-copying premine from ETH, and in fact this may even be the cleanest way to implement it in code. I personally was okay with a fork in light of this context, together with a philosophical belief that a principle does not need to have literally infinite weight in order to have value.

In the near to mid-term future, I expect that there will be many small applications rather than one big application, and so no single failure will be enough to greatly impact the ecosystem; hence it strikes me as quite unlikely that application rescue hard forks will become a regular thing (note that some disagree; Vlad would love to have hard forks for many more things, though I'll let him defend his own views :) )

At this point, I am hypothetically open to two kinds of application rescue hard forks:

i) A fork in the very unlikely case that the Solidity compiler proves to have a serious bug that puts 5-10 million ETH in danger.
ii) There has been a medium amount of ether that has been sent to unspendable addresses because users were using buggy ethereum-js libraries that created the address from the public key incorrectly. I would be OK with a change, for example as part of metropolis, that adds a new transaction type that effectively makes the most common categories of such unspendable addresses spendable by their cryptographically provable rightful owners (but I would only be ok with this with broad consensus and even still it's dependent on technical feasibility and tradeoffs in code complexity).

In the future, I suspect that both possibilities will recede over time.

3d) In the short and medium term, we are still under conditions of high technical uncertainty. For example, Vlad and I continue to argue about whether or not a fixed currency supply can offer sufficient incentives through transaction fees alone to secure the network. If we had agreed, for example, to a "100 million ETH and never a single bit more" principle on day one, we would have dug ourselves into a rather deep hole if the research ends up showing that low inflation (or something more complex, like expected low deflation but the possibility of low inflation under conditions of low Casper participation) is the only safe way forward. Similarly, "it is possible to create a contract that lasts forever" is also something that is economically dangerous to commit to. Hence, principles on these kinds of matters may need to be settled only later.

4) Concerns about moral hazard are, in this case, IMO overblown; on the contrary, despite the fork, I have been extremely impressed by the sheer number of formal verification and other secure contract programming projects that have recently emerged in academia. Writing this from inside the middle of an Ethereum research workshop in Cornell, I am very optimistic that the number of bugs in code will decrease greatly over the next year.

4b) This does however mean that there is now a much larger burden on high-level language developers, and I personally do not have the time or ability to maintain Serpent at a level that I personally find satisfactory. I am personally continuing to use it as a language for experimenting with Casper simulations, but I welcome proposals from the community for how and if it can find a niche in other contexts.

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